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Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Shed Supply at Record Pace, HODLers Are Buying: What's Going On?
Sep 19, 2024
Bitcoin's short-term holder supply is decreasing at its fastest monthly rate since 2012. This trend has caught the attention of market analysts. CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr highlighted this development in a recent social media post. Short-term holders (STHs) are defined as investors who acquired their coins within the past 155 days. They represent one segment of the Bitcoin market, the other group consists of long-term holders (LTHs). Historically, longer holding periods correlate with decreased likelihood of selling. STHs are generally considered more volatile investors. LTHs, in contrast, tend to be more steadfast. Yes, they are the legendary HODLers, the pillars of the crypto market. The 30-day change in STH supply serves as a key metric for investor behavior. Earlier this year, this metric spiked during Bitcoin's rally to new all-time highs. It indicated a significant transfer of supply from LTHs to STHs. Such transfers are typical during bull markets. LTHs often take profits when Bitcoin reaches new heights. New demand, driven by market hype, absorbs this selling pressure. The trend has now reversed. The 30-day change in STH supply has plunged into negative territory. Over the past month, STH supply has decreased by approximately 15%. This marks the lowest 30-day change since 2012. This decrease doesn't necessarily mean LTHs are buying from STHs. Instead, it suggests STHs are maturing into the LTH category, they're holding past the 155-day threshold that defines STHs. The shift indicates increased patience among STHs during the current consolidation period. Analysts view this rise in HODLing sentiment as potentially positive for Bitcoin's outlook. HODLers aren't selling when prices plummet, but they tend to accumulate when they think the price is about to go up.
Michael Saylor and Bitcoin Are Beating Legendary Warren Buffett: MicroStrategy Stock Surged 1,000% Since 2020
Aug 13, 2024
MicroStrategy's Bitcoin gamble has paid off big time. The company's stock has skyrocketed 1,000% since its first Bitcoin purchase. Warren Buffett told us Michael Saylor with his MicroStrategy would fail, because Bitcoin is 'a fraud', you know, and he couldn't have been more wrong. It's been four years since MicroStrategy took the plunge. On August 10, 2020, they became the first public company to use Bitcoin as their main reserve asset. Basically, Saylor just started buying Bitcoin like there was no tomorrow. And he is still doing this today. MicroStrategy now holds 226,500 BTC. That's worth a cool $13.771 billion. They snagged these coins at an average price of $37,000 each. Bitcoin's currently trading around $59,500. Do the math, and you'll see they're sitting on unrealized profits of about $5.3 billion. That would be a big deal even for Buffett. Ho is probably just envious, right? And MicroStrategy is not selling. Nope, not a single coin. In fact, they're doubling down. Their most recent purchase was on August 1st. So they keep buying as the price goes up, which might again seem a very questionable strategy. Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy's main man, is giving Buffett a run for his money again and again, pushing for Bitcoin Maximalism strategy and HODL philosophy which is still considered as 'crap' by many respected financial leaders. And yet, MSTR stock has surged 1,000% since August 2020. That's 1.5 times better than Bitcoin itself and 16.25 times better than the S&P 500. How is that even possible? And how is Buffett doing? Oh, he is doing fine. By all means. Except for Bitcoin standard. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Class A stock (BRK.A) is lagging behind. It's only gained 104.75% in the same period. Buffett's been a bit of a grump about crypto, and it's cost him. Remember when Buffett called Bitcoin "rat poison squared" back in 2018? His buddy Charlie Munger went even further. In 2021, he predicted Bitcoin would crash to zero, calling it a "disgusting product". Ouch. But here's the real kicker: Bitcoin and MSTR have outperformed Buffett's top stock picks. We're talking Apple, American Express, and Bank of America. Not too shabby for a "rat poison", eh? Not everyone's on board the MicroStrategy train, though. Some traders are looking to short MSTR stock. Kerrisdale Capital reckons it's trading at an "unjustifiable premium" to Bitcoin. Sahm Adrangi, the big cheese at Kerrisdale Capital, told Cointelegraph: "The software business is worth a billion, maybe a billion [point] five, somewhere in between — it's not worth very much." He added, "Bitcoin prices have to go up for the value of the company to increase. If they go down the value of the company goes down. The company should be trading at the value of Bitcoin. Our argument is 'go short MicroStrategy, go long Bitcoin.'" So there you have it. MicroStrategy's Bitcoin bet is still a hot topic. Whether it's genius or madness, only time will tell. But for now, Saylor's laughing all the way to the bank.
Michael Saylor Gives Us Revelation: 'Bitcoin's Volatility Is a Feature, Not a Bug'
Aug 12, 2024
Bitcoin took a nosedive this week. Japan's stock market crash was to blame. It showed how the crypto asset can go haywire during economic turmoil. Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy's co-founder and Executive Chairman, has stepped up. He's addressing worries about Bitcoin's wild price swings. Saylor shared his thoughts on Bloomberg Open Interest. He aimed to reassure investors about Bitcoin's role as a hedge and store of value. The crypto evangelist doubled down on his faith in Bitcoin's long-term potential. He's not fazed by the current volatility. "Bitcoin's volatility is a feature, not a bug," Saylor said. It's a bold claim, but he's sticking to it. Short-term, Bitcoin's ups and downs can trigger global credit squeezes and liquidations. But Saylor sees it differently in the long run. He reckons Bitcoin outperforms in the long haul. It's more durable too, he claims. Why so volatile? Saylor says it's because Bitcoin works. Its "physics and politics" have disrupted other markets. Saylor thinks Bitcoin beats physical or financial capital as a store of value. It offers freedom from counterparties, he argues. "Bitcoin is a capital investment you can hold for decades," Saylor stated. "No corporation, competitor, counterparty, or country can take it away from you." He sees Bitcoin as generational wealth. This applies to both retail and institutional levels, he claims. Saylor believes Bitcoin trumps other long-term capital management options. Its decentralized nature is key, despite the volatility. When's the right time to buy Bitcoin? Saylor's answer: anytime. He likens it to investing in Manhattan real estate. MicroStrategy buys Bitcoin when they can. They pounce when they've raised enough capital. Saylor stresses the importance of understanding market trends. It helps navigate Bitcoin's price swings. His views offer a fresh perspective on Bitcoin's long-term value. Investors grappling with volatility might find some comfort in his words. But let's be real. Bitcoin's still a wild ride. Saylor's optimism doesn't change that fact.
Bitcoin Miner Marathon Goes 'Full HODL' with $100M Purchase
Jul 25, 2024
Marathon Digital Holdings has made waves in the crypto world. The firm just bought $100 million worth of Bitcoin. This happened over the past month. Marathon is the world's largest Bitcoin miner. They're now using BTC as a strategic reserve asset. It's a big move. The company plans to go "full hodl". That's crypto slang for "hold on for dear life". Fred Thiel, Marathon's CEO, broke the news on X: "Today Marathon is proud to announce that to strengthen our strategy of holding Bitcoin as our strategic treasury reserve asset, we have over the past month purchased $100 million in BTC, and will now go full HODL @saylor." This is a big deal. Large holders like mining firms can really shake up Bitcoin's price. This is especially true with the 2024 Bitcoin halving coming up. Miners might need to sell more BTC then. But Marathon's playing it cool. They didn't sell any Bitcoin in June, even when prices were dropping. That's pretty gutsy. Back then, they said they might sell some Bitcoin. It would've been for operations, treasury management, and general corporate stuff. But now they've changed their tune. Thiel's all in on the "full hodl" strategy. He reckons they won't be selling any more BTC. Here's what he said: "Adopting a full HODL strategy reflects our confidence in the long-term value of Bitcoin." With this new $100M Bitcoin buy, Marathon's holdings are massive. They've now got over 20,000 BTC. That's worth more than $1.28 billion. Not too shabby. So, what's next for Marathon? Only time will tell. But one thing's for sure – they're betting big on Bitcoin. It's a bold move in a volatile market. Let's see if it pays off.
21 Rules of HODLing Bitcoin According to Michael Saylor, the Legendary Crypto Bull
Bitcoin
Jun 19, 2024
Michael Saylor, executive chairman of MicroStrategy and a prominent crypto bull, just outlined 21 rules of HODling Bitcoin. Some of them might seem quite trivial. Yet, some of them are absolutely brilliant. Check them out. Saylor was a gem of the recent BTC Prague conference. His keynote was captivating. And some of the things he said might have a huge impact on the market. At least in short terms. What's worth at least Saylor's fantastic prediction of Bitcoin reaching the $8 million per coin mark Or not so fantastic? But another part of his speech might have a bigger impact in long terms. Saylor presented his vision of “21 Rules of HODLing Bitcoin.” Biggest bull on the market, Saylor outlined strategies for managing and sustaining investments in a highly volatile environment. He articulated a philosophical and strategic framework for understanding and investing in BTC. According to Saylor, Bitcoin is so much more than just money. Saylor thinks of Bitcoin as of a financial asset but as a revolutionary tool capable of reshaping global financial paradigms. These rules were consisely summarized by Luke Broyles and published via X. Here they are with comments from market observers. 21 rules of HODLing Bitcoin, according to Michael Saylor #1 “Those who understand buy Bitcoin, those who don’t criticize Bitcoin,” Saylor declared, setting the tone for his discourse on the dichotomy between skeptics and proponents. He argued that recognizing BTC’s potential is akin to seeing a paradigm shift before it fully unfolds. #2 "Everyone is against #Bitcoin  before they are for it." Reflecting on his initial dismissive stance in 2013, Saylor recounted how his view evolved as BTC’s resilience and potential became increasingly evident. His personal journey from skepticism to advocacy underscores a common path among investors who often transition from doubt to strong support. #3 "You will never be done learning about Bitcoin,” Saylor stated, emphasizing the complexity and ever-evolving nature of the cryptocurrency. He suggested that BTC’s intersection with global economics, technology, and regulatory frameworks makes it a perpetually relevant subject for study. #4 Drawing historical parallels, Saylor highlighted moments of significant upheaval, such as WWII and the rise of communism in Europe, to illustrate BTC’s value as a non-geopolitical, stable store of wealth. “Buy BTC because entropy is guaranteed,” he asserted, suggesting that Bitcoin provides a safe haven in times of disorder. #5 According to Saylor, BTC offers an equitable opportunity in contrast to traditional financial systems, which he views as inherently skewed against the average person. “Bitcoin is the only game in the casino that we can all win,” he noted, framing it as a uniquely fair and transparent financial instrument. #6 He advised taking a proactive approach to investment, saying, “Bitcoin won’t protect you if you don’t wear the armor.” This analogy was used to encourage substantial, thoughtful investment in Bitcoin to safeguard one’s financial future. #7 Saylor passionately argued that Bitcoin enables a form of ownership unmediated by any third party: “Your cryptographic keys in your head are your wealth.” This, he claimed, is a radical shift from the way assets have been controlled and protected throughout history. #8 Reflecting on the volatility and growth trajectory, Saylor shared a personal anecdote on how he dismissed BTC at $892 to only deserve buying it at $9,500 for the first time. “Everyone gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve,” he remarked. “He then said when Bitcoin is $950,000 people will try to wait for it to crash to $700,000. Then BTC would go to $8,000,000,” Broyles reiterated. #9 Saylor advised only investing money that one can afford to lose, highlighting the conservative approach to adopting new financial technologies. This rule underscores the balance between visionary investment and financial prudence. #10 Describing fiat currencies and traditional economic indicators as “the matrix,” Saylor championed Bitcoin as a means to transcend conventional financial systems. He sees it as not just a technology but a liberation from the restrictive narratives imposed by traditional economic structures. #11 Saylor shared insights from personal experiences where Bitcoin’s impact on his company’s financial stability was profound. “Without BTC, MSTR would have failed,” he disclosed, illustrating the direct impact of strategic Bitcoin investments on corporate finance. #12 Saylor projected a conservative 24% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next decade, setting a potential valuation benchmark and underscoring his confidence in BTC’s sustained growth. Notably, this would price BTC at $600,000 by 2034. #13 Saylor described the current economic system as flawed, seeing BTC as a cure for these inherent issues. “The cure to economic illness is the orange pill,” he said, promoting it as a revolutionary technology that offers a radical update to outdated economic practices. #14 Rather than attacking the fading fiat system, Saylor urged for a positive approach: “Be for Bitcoin, not against fiat,” emphasizing the importance of building a new system rather than destructively opposing the old. #15 According to Saylor, “Bitcoin is for everybody.” He projected that digital capital like BTC could eventually represent half of all value in a future, yet-to-be-imagined world economy, which would significantly drive up its price. #16 “Learn to think in Bitcoin,” Saylor advised, encouraging a shift in perspective to view future technologies and paradigms through the lens of BTC, rather than trying to fit new innovations into old frameworks. #17 “You don’t change Bitcoin, it changes you.” Saylor highlighted how BTC challenges individuals to rethink their approach to money, value, and investment on a global scale. #18 “Laser eyes protect you from endless lies.” Saylor underscored the importance of maintaining focus on the long-term potential, especially when its market price reaches landmarks like $100,000 or $1 million. He envisioned a future where BTC’s market cap could escalate to between $100 trillion and $500 trillion. #19 He cautioned, “Respect Bitcoin or it will make a clown of you.” This rule was a warning against underestimating BTC’s impact and the foolishness of mocking an emerging financial technology that has substantial backing and proven resilience. #20 “You do not sell your Bitcoin.” Saylor likened selling BTC to self-sabotage, suggesting that it is a foundational asset for long-term financial security, much like a life raft in an ocean or a fire in winter. #21 Finally, Saylor concluded with, “Spread Bitcoin with love.” He stressed the importance of patience and kindness in promoting BTC, especially towards those who are initially critical or dismissive of its benefits.

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