Bitcoin's price has taken a nosedive. It's now trading at $57,000, down 23% from its all-time high. But one analyst remains bullish, and we want to believe him, don't we?
Arsen, an independent market analyst, forecasts a rebound to a whopping $330,000 this cycle, which seems a bit hard to believe. He's not worried about the current dip.
"Smart money" is accumulating Bitcoin, Arsen argues. This includes institutional investors and market experts.
"This dip is nothing new," he notes. Bitcoin has seen similar patterns before.
Previous bull cycles occurred every four years. They lasted about 800 days each, which is quite a lot. The first, in 2012, saw a 9,000% price increase. But we are from that now, aren't we?
Subsequent cycles in 2016 and 2020 showed smaller gains. They were 3,000% and 1,200% respectively. Which is kind of closer to what we see now. Or do we? The current bullish cycle seems a bit weird. But not to our analyst.
Arsen points out a trend. "In every consecutive cycle, Bitcoin returns get smaller by about ~60%," he writes.
Based on this pattern, he predicts a 450% price increase this cycle. That would put Bitcoin at around $330,000 per coin.
The current correction has several causes. Mt. Gox is reimbursing clients. The German government is selling off Bitcoin.
Despite this, institutional investors are buying the dip. CoinShares data confirms this trend.
CryptoQuant, an onchain analytics platform, reports that "whales" are increasing their holdings. These are Bitcoin's large investors.
Not everyone shares Arsen's optimism. Some analysts predict further drops before a rebound.
Markus Thielen of 10x Research sees Bitcoin potentially falling to $50,000. He bases this on a bearish double top formation.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, also has a short-term bearish outlook. He expects Bitcoin to break below $56,000.
Van de Poppe predicts a further drop to around $52,800. This would tap into demand-side liquidity.
Another famous analyst, Apsk32, foresees a correction until October. They then predict a 300% rally into 2026.
The crypto market remains volatile. Bitcoin's journey to $330,000 won't be a smooth ride. But for long-term believers, the current dip might be a buying opportunity.