Crypto market maker GSR Markets predicts a potential 9x increase in SOL price following approval of spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US. The forecast was released on June 27.
GSR identified Solana as part of "crypto's big three". The report coincided with VanEck's unexpected filing for a spot Solana ETF.
The 9x estimate assumes spot Solana ETFs would capture 14% of spot Bitcoin ETF flows since January. This factors in relative market capitalization.
Under this scenario, Solana's price could rise from $149 to over $1,320. This would result in a $614 billion market cap based on current supply.
GSR also presented more conservative projections. "Bear" and "baseline" scenarios predict 1.4x and 3.4x price increases respectively. These assume 2% and 5% capture of Bitcoin ETF flows.
The firm noted estimates could be higher if ETFs incorporate staking rewards. However, staking was not permitted in approved spot Ether ETFs.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas believes significant political changes are needed for serious consideration of a spot Solana ETF. This includes changes in US presidency and SEC leadership.
The SEC has classified SOL as a security in recent lawsuits. This complicates the approval process compared to Bitcoin and Ether ETFs.
VanEck's application follows 3iQ's filing for a spot Solana ETF in Canada. This marks a first in North America.
Franklin Templeton, a $1.5 trillion asset manager, has praised the Solana ecosystem. However, they have not confirmed plans for a spot Solana ETF.
Over $1 billion in Solana exchange-traded products already exist globally. This indicates growing demand for SOL exposure.
James Seyffart, another Bloomberg ETF analyst, suggests political factors influenced spot Ethereum ETF approval. He believes significant regulatory changes are needed for approval of other crypto ETFs, including Solana.
Seyffart emphasized the need for a regulated market to monitor these assets for fraud and manipulation.